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The Ministry of Natural Resources– Bancroft Work Centre is advising area residents that
a Flood Watch is in effect for all watersheds in the Peterborough Bancroft District until
Friday, April 04, 2025.

Runoff to local lakes and rivers have peaked and are in decline. Water levels on local lakes
will continue to be drawn down in anticipation of runoff increases that are expected from an
upcoming rain event over the weekend.

Residents in Peterborough Bancroft District are reminded to keep a close watch on weather
conditions, regularly check for updated messages, and exercise caution near fast-moving
rivers and streams.

Residents and visitors should exercise caution while around waterbodies and maintain
close supervision of children and pets.

Flood prone properties along the York River, Burnt River, and Black River that have been
affected in the past should continue to take necessary action to protect and secure any
vulnerable property.

Residents that have been affected by high water and flow conditions in the past should
continue to take necessary action to protect and secure any vulnerable property in proximity
to rivers and lakes and closely monitor developing conditions and regularly check for
updated messages.

The ministry is closely monitoring the weather and developing watershed conditions.
Further updates will be issued as appropriate.

Technical Information

Description of Weather System

York River Watershed:
Precipitation amounts up to 51mm of rain is forecasted for the next 5 days. Daytime highs
during the rain event are forecasted to be 0°C to 2°C. Evening lows at or below 0°C are
forecasted for the next 14 days.
Black River and Burnt River Watershed:
Precipitation amounts up to 70mm of rain is forecasted for the next 5 days. Daytime highs
can reach up to 6°C and nighttime lows down to -10°C between March 27-31.

Description of Current Conditions

Lake water levels and river flows remain elevated from the precipitation event that occurred
on March 16th. River flows will be maintained at elevated levels in advance of the
forecasted rain to create more storage capacity in lakes. A significant portion of the
snowpack has melted following the rain event from March 16th. Recent surveys indicate an
increase in the water content of the snow that falls in the range of 50mm to 100mm. These
values are highly variable across the District.
The remaining snowpack is dense and has a limited capacity to absorb rainfall. With
forecasted rainfall temperatures ranging from 0°C to 2°C in the York watershed and -10°C
to 6°C in the Black River and Burnt River watershed, the impact of the rainfall event on
water levels and flows remains uncertain.

DEFINITIONS

• WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – WATER SAFETY: indicates that high
  flows, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for such users as boaters,
  anglers and swimmers but flooding is not expected.
• WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – FLOOD OUTLOOK: gives early notice
  of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow
  melt, high winds or other conditions
• SHORELINE CONDITIONS STATEMENT – WATER SAFETY: indicates that along
  the Great Lakes shorelines high water, melting ice or other factors could be
  dangerous but flooding is not expected.
• SHORELINE CONDITIONS STATEMENT – FLOOD OUTLOOK: gives early notice
  of the potential for flooding along the Great Lakes shorelines based on weather
  and lake conditions, and water safety information.
• FLOOD WATCH: potential for flooding exists within specific watercourses and
  municipalities
• FLOOD WARNING: flooding is imminent or occurring within specific watercourses
  and municipalities.
  LEARN MORE
• Surface Water Monitoring Centre public webpage www.ontario.ca/page/surfacewater-monitoring-centre
• Environment Canada bulletins: www. weather.gc.ca
• A close watch on local conditions and weather forecasts from Environment and
  Climate Change Canada is recommended.